PolytoolhubWhat is Weather Edge?
Weather Edge describes a daily weather-market research workflow built from GFS and ECMWF ensemble members, NWS bias correction and city-specific calibration. It compares the resulting probability with temperature-contract prices and applies an edge threshold and liquidity filter. The public page also exposes a small results sample that needs to be read in full.
Who it is for
- Researchers learning ensemble-to-contract mapping
- Users following US temperature markets
- Readers comparing model disagreement and market prices
Features and coverage
- Available on
- Web, Email
- Markets & venues
- Kalshi
- Two ensemble families
Combine 31 GFS and 51 ECMWF members.
- Bias correction
Use NWS point forecasts in the stated adjustment.
- City calibration
Apply city-specific uncertainty scaling.
- Edge threshold
The described signal floor is eight percentage points.
- Liquidity filter
Exclude thin markets according to the model’s rules.
- Scheduled scans
The page lists 5, 7 and 9 AM Central Time.
- Email delivery
Subscribe for the described daily signal summary.
- Results sample
Inspect both the restricted high-confidence subset and the fuller calibration sample.
Workflows with Weather Edge
Research a signal
Match the city, station, date and threshold to the contract rules.
Inspect disagreement
Read the ensemble assumptions rather than using a single weather-app number.
Evaluate the record
Separate resolved, pending and calibration-period entries.
Pricing and total cost
Daily email signals are advertised as free.
Getting started
Before you start: The public results table contains a small, dated sample and pending entries; it is not a current complete performance series.
- Read the methodology.
- Confirm the cities and scan schedule.
- Inspect the full sample record.
- Subscribe if the coverage fits your markets.
- Check every signal against the exact contract.
Useful links
What to check
- The public results table contains a small, dated sample and pending entries; it is not a current complete performance series.
- The page’s 82 inputs are ensemble members, not 82 independent model families.
- The covered market venue is Kalshi, not native Polymarket execution.
A closer look
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Frequently asked questions about Weather Edge
Is it a trading terminal?
The reviewed service describes research and email signals.
Which models are used?
GFS and ECMWF ensembles with an NWS adjustment.
Does it cover every city?
No, a defined US-city set is listed.