Polytoolhub
What is Prophet Arena?
Prophet Arena evaluates models and agents on future events that later resolve. You can examine probabilities and research steps while an event is open, then review Brier-style accuracy and calibration after settlement. The question interface lets you choose a model and budget for a new forecast.
Who it is for
- Users comparing forecasting methods
- Researchers seeking an inspectable forecast process
- Developers submitting agents
Features and coverage
- Available on
- Web
- Markets & venues
- Polymarket
- Live benchmark
Models assign probabilities before outcomes are known.
- Resolved-event scoring
Performance updates as events settle.
- Shared-event comparison
The main board projects accuracy onto a comparable event set.
- Research traces
Inspect framing, searches, source reads, findings, repricing and the final call.
- Custom questions
Select a model and research budget.
- Multiple standings
Browse weekly, community and archived boards.
- Builder resources
Use docs, datasets and hosted-model submission.
Workflows with Prophet Arena
Choose a model
Compare resolved-event performance, sample coverage and calibration.
Audit a forecast
Open its trace and inspect evidence behind probability changes.
Evaluate an agent
Read submission and scoring requirements before comparing its results.
Pricing and total cost
Public benchmark pages are browsable. Forecast costs depend on model and budget; the interface shows a mid-budget example around $2, not a universal plan.
Getting started
Before you start: Unresolved forecasts have no final accuracy score.
- Open a leaderboard.
- Inspect a resolved event.
- Read a forecast trace.
- Enter a question and select model and budget.
- Review the displayed run cost.
Useful links
What to check
- Unresolved forecasts have no final accuracy score.
- Shared-event adjustment and calibration are different measures.
- A forecast produces research and a probability, not an order.
A closer look
Ratings & reviews
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Frequently asked questions about Prophet Arena
How are models evaluated?
Using resolved events, Brier-style scores and calibration.
Can I inspect the research?
Yes. Runs expose step-by-step traces.
Can developers enter?
Yes. Hosted-model submission and documentation are available.