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Polymarket Lens

Explore probability calibration, surprising resolved outcomes and active bid–ask spreads in a public, browser-only research dashboard.

3.0/ 5Editorial rating0 user reviews
Visit official siteastuka.github.io
Available on
Web, Open-source repository
Pricing
Free public dashboard with an MIT-licensed source repository

Screenshots and interface

Product preview1 / 2

Prediction-market calibration chart and research explanation.

What is Polymarket Lens?

Polymarket Lens asks how quoted probabilities compare with eventual outcomes. It groups resolved markets into probability bins, shows a calibration chart and lists questions with large price-to-outcome gaps. It also displays current spread comparisons. The historical probability is reconstructed from a monthly-change field, so the result is an exploratory proxy rather than a clean fixed-horizon forecast dataset.

Who it is for

  • Readers learning how probability calibration is measured
  • Researchers exploring surprising resolved markets
  • Developers studying a small public client-side analytics project

Features and coverage

Available on
Web, Open-source repository
Markets & venues
Polymarket
Research topics
Calibration, Forecast evaluation
  • Calibration plot

    Compare each probability bin with its observed Yes-outcome frequency and the diagonal reference line.

  • Per-bin sample counts

    Inspect how many markets support a point instead of reading every bin equally.

  • Summary metrics

    Review Brier score, directional accuracy and average outcome surprise.

  • Resolved-market table

    Find large differences between the reconstructed probability and the final outcome.

  • Active spread comparison

    Compare the widest and tightest bid–ask gaps returned by the current data.

  • Visible methodology

    Read the probability reconstruction, volume filter and exclusions on the same page.

  • Public source code

    Inspect or adapt the MIT-licensed browser application.

Workflows with Polymarket Lens

Read the calibration chart

Choose a bin, inspect its sample count and compare the observed outcome frequency with the predicted level. Use the plot values directly when interpreting the direction of the gap.

Investigate a surprising result

Open an entry in the resolved-market table and inspect the original question, timeframe and resolution.

Reuse the analysis method

Read the source and replace the monthly-change proxy with timestamped historical observations if your study requires an exact forecast horizon.

Pricing and total cost

Free public dashboard with an MIT-licensed source repository. No account or API key is required for its client-side data requests.

Getting started

Before you start: The reconstructed probability uses final price minus oneMonthPriceChange; that trailing field may include resolution and does not establish an exact one-month forecast horizon.

  1. Open the dashboard and let the public data load.
  2. Read Methodology before interpreting the metrics.
  3. Inspect the calibration chart and per-bin counts.
  4. Open individual resolved markets from the surprise table.
  5. Use the repository if you want to reproduce or change the computation.

View repository

Useful links

    What to check

    • The reconstructed probability uses final price minus oneMonthPriceChange; that trailing field may include resolution and does not establish an exact one-month forecast horizon.
    • Markets below $5,000 volume and those without meaningful price change are excluded, which changes the sample.
    • The generated overconfidence and underconfidence labels can conflict with the displayed gap direction; read the actual bin values.
    • A wide spread can reflect low liquidity and is not by itself evidence of a profitable trade.

    A closer look

    Ratings & reviews

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    Editorial rating
    3.0/ 5
    0 user reviews
    Polytoolhub editorial

    Our take on Polymarket Lens

    Public charts, sample counts and open source make the analysis inspectable. The reconstructed historical probability does not establish an exact forecast horizon, which materially limits calibration claims.

    Based on documented features, setup and access terms. How we rate

    User reviews 0

    The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews.

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    Frequently asked questions about Polymarket Lens

    Does the tool need my wallet?

    No. It fetches public data in the browser.

    What is the historical price proxy?

    Final outcome price minus the market’s oneMonthPriceChange field.

    Can I inspect the source?

    Yes. The linked GitHub project is MIT licensed.

    Does the spread table execute trades?

    No. It is a research display of returned bid–ask gaps.