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CME FedWatch

Compare FOMC rate expectations using probabilities implied by CME Fed Funds futures.

4.0/ 5Editorial rating0 user reviews
Visit official sitewww.cmegroup.com
Available on
Web
Availability: public · The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links.

Screenshots and interface

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Official FedWatch information page. The embedded probability tool was not independently benchmarked.

What is CME FedWatch?

CME FedWatch presents probabilities for future Federal Reserve rate decisions derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. It provides a useful independent market-based reference when researching a prediction-market contract about an FOMC meeting.

The values are model-derived from a different instrument, not the Federal Reserve’s own forecast. Match the meeting date and target-rate range before comparing them with a binary market price.

Who it is for

  • Macro researchers comparing rate-decision expectations
  • Users who want a futures-based reference for FOMC markets

Features and coverage

Available on
Web
  • Rate probabilities

    Explore the provider’s futures-implied FOMC probability framework.

  • Meeting context

    Use meeting dates and target-rate outcomes to frame a comparison.

  • Methodology and guide

    Read the official calculation explanation and user guide; API access is linked separately.

Workflows with CME FedWatch

Compare a meeting outcome

Choose the same FOMC meeting and rate range as the prediction-market contract.

Understand a discrepancy

Read the methodology and compare timestamps before interpreting a difference between the two markets.

Pricing and total cost

The public FedWatch information page is accessible. Commercial API or market-data licensing terms are separate and were not verified.

Access: The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links.

Getting started

  1. Open the FedWatch page and its user guide.
  2. Match the meeting and target-rate range to your question.
  3. Check methodology and timestamps before comparing probabilities.

Useful links

    What to check

    • Probabilities depend on the futures-based methodology. They are not official Fed forecasts or guaranteed outcomes; embedded data delivery was not benchmarked.

    A closer look

    Ratings & reviews

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    Editorial rating
    4.0/ 5
    0 user reviews
    Polytoolhub editorial

    Our take on CME FedWatch

    A useful independent market-based reference with an official methodology. Careful outcome mapping is essential when comparing it with prediction-market contracts.

    Based on documented features, setup and access terms. How we rate

    User reviews 0

    The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews.

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    Frequently asked questions about CME FedWatch

    Are these probabilities published by the Federal Reserve?

    No. They are CME’s probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures under its methodology.

    Can I compare a rate range with a rate-change contract directly?

    Only after mapping both to the same starting rate, meeting and outcome definition.

    What does CME FedWatch cost?

    The public FedWatch information page is accessible. Commercial API or market-data licensing terms are separate and were not verified.

    What access does CME FedWatch require?

    The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links.