Polytoolhub
What is Manifold?
Manifold makes question creation part of the product: users can turn a disputed claim into a market, write its resolution criteria and let others trade and comment. Its mana currency cannot be converted into cash. Separate prize drawings use their own entry and payout rules.
Who it is for
- Users practicing forecasting with virtual stakes
- Communities creating their own questions
- Researchers reading probability changes and discussion
Features and coverage
- Available on
- Web, Mobile
- Markets & venues
- Manifold
- Research topics
- Play-money markets, Community forecasting
- User-created markets
Ask a question instead of waiting for an exchange to list it.
- Play-money shares
Express a view using virtual mana.
- Public probabilities
Read a market’s current crowd estimate.
- Comments
Discuss evidence and challenge assumptions.
- Topic discovery
Browse politics, technology, sports and other subjects.
- Forecasting record
Follow traders and their past activity.
- Mobile access
Use the linked mobile app.
- Prize drawings
Optional drawings are separate from converting mana into cash.
Workflows with Manifold
Create a useful question
Specify an observable outcome, deadline and resolution source before inviting traders.
Practice updating
Record an initial view and adjust when new evidence changes the probability.
Read a market as research
Compare the price movement with comments and participant activity.
Pricing and total cost
New users receive 1,000 mana to begin. Mana is play money and cannot be redeemed for cash. Prize drawings have a free-entry path and separate rules.
Getting started
Before you start: Virtual profits are not cash trading returns.
- Create an account.
- Read the rules of a market before trading.
- Start with the allocated virtual mana.
- Explain important forecast updates in comments.
- If creating a market, define resolution clearly.
- Review resolved questions to evaluate your judgment.
Useful links
What to check
- Virtual profits are not cash trading returns.
- User-created resolution wording varies in quality.
- A thinly traded market can be moved by a small number of participants.
- Prize drawings do not make mana redeemable.
A closer look
Ratings & reviews
User reviews 0
The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews.
A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool.
Write a review
How was your experience with Manifold?
Share what you used, what worked and what could be better. We confirm your email and review the submission before publishing.
To submit a review, email info@polytradingbot.com with the tool name, your rating and your experience. Enable JavaScript to prepare a draft here.
Related tools
Browse category
Submit explicit probabilities and numerical distributions, compare forecasts with the community and evaluate a record after questions resolve.
- Access Web · API
Research cash-settled Yes/No event contracts accessed through member brokers, with a one-cent execution fee and a monthly incentive-coupon mechanism.
- Access Web
Create prediction games with friends using virtual Cred, private groups and imported Polymarket odds for comparison.
- Access iOS · iPadOS
Frequently asked questions about Manifold
Can mana be withdrawn as cash?
No.
How much does a new account start with?
1,000 mana.
Can users create questions?
Yes.
Are prize drawings the same as trading winnings?
No; they are a separate program.