--- url: "https://polytoolhub.com/tools/prediction-index/" publisher: "Polytoolhub" dateModified: "2026-10-27" --- [← Research]() ![Prediction Index logo]() Research tool # Prediction Index Compare geopolitical market aggregates with a model ensemble and explore the prediction-market ecosystem. [**3.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [0 user reviews]() [Visit official site]() predictionindex.xyz **Available on:** Web **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** · Public web research; a research-subscription call to action is separate from reading the index. [Research]() [Dashboards]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 1 Official Chaos Index with separate venue aggregates and market/model chart; displayed values are the captured snapshot, not a freshness guarantee. ## What is Prediction Index? Prediction Index combines an ecosystem directory with the Chaos Index, a research view of market-implied escalation and peace scenarios. The index separates Polymarket and Kalshi, exposes constituent events and weights, and compares the market series with a separately generated language-model ensemble. Its methodological value is in tracing an aggregate back to the questions behind it. The operator says model prompts omit market prices and that machine history is not backfilled. The captured page still showed a September 29 machine run and a constituent-list revision from August 25, so its LIVE labels should not be read as proof that every input is current. This is a research presentation rather than an order-entry tool or an authoritative global-risk probability. ### Who it is for - Researchers following geopolitical contract baskets - Readers comparing a market aggregate with model-generated forecasts - Builders mapping prediction-market platforms and ecosystem services ## Features and coverage **Available on:** Web **Markets & venues:** Polymarket, Kalshi **Research topics:** Geopolitics - **Separate escalation and peace views** The Chaos Index keeps war and peace baskets separate and shows distinct Polymarket and Kalshi surfaces. - **Constituent transparency** The page exposes markets, clusters, forecast groups, weights and Yes odds. Zero-weight entries are visible rather than silently included in a headline. - **Market versus machine** The model view compares Grok, GPT and Claude assessments with the market. The operator describes independent prompts that hide prices and a machine series beginning when the experiment first ran. - **Ecosystem discovery** A separate directory filters projects by outcome type, chain and status. Directory classifications are leads for further research, not independent confirmation of each provider’s capabilities. ## Workflows with Prediction Index ### Investigate a headline index move Choose the venue, identify escalation or peace, then inspect the constituent table and largest weights. Open the underlying contracts and compare their resolution conditions before interpreting the aggregate. ### Review market/model disagreement Check the machine-run date and the contract rules, then inspect the largest differences and the model-by-model spread. Keep market prices and older model results on separate time bases. ## Pricing and total cost The reviewed homepage, ecosystem directory and Chaos Index are publicly readable without an account or displayed paid plan. No complete commercial API or subscription offer was established. **Access:** Public web research; a research-subscription call to action is separate from reading the index. ## Getting started 1. Open the Chaos Index from the official homepage and select the venue view relevant to the research question. 2. Read the constituent list, weighting explanation and displayed revision and machine-run dates. 3. Use the market/model gaps to choose contracts for further investigation; verify their original rules and current prices independently. ## Useful links - [Official application]() ### What to check - The captured machine result and constituent revision predate this review; independent data freshness and index reconstruction were not tested. - Weighted event baskets and model disagreement do not measure a verified chance of every possible geopolitical outcome. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews [Write a review]() Editorial rating **3.0**/ 5 0 user reviews Polytoolhub editorial ### Our take on Prediction Index Useful constituent visibility and a clear separation between market and model views make the research inspectable. Old displayed run dates and unverified aggregation and refresh behavior require caution about the headline numbers. Based on documented features, setup and access terms. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. Write a review ### How was your experience with Prediction Index? Share what you used, what worked and what could be better. We confirm your email and review the submission before publishing. To submit a review, email [info@polytoolhub.com]() with the tool name, your rating and your experience. Enable JavaScript to prepare a draft here. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Adjacent: Editorial market research and newsletter archive.]() ![Adjacent logo]()[Adjacent]() Research tool**3.5**Editorial Follow event-contract benchmarks, thematic indices, reference rates and news organized around prediction-market moves. - Access Web · API · Email Compare formal prediction-market index definitions and scales with this geopolitical basket. ![Alphascope: Market research entry point and forecasting tools.]() ![Alphascope logo]()[Alphascope]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Turn a market link, question or screenshot into an AI forecast and compare it with market odds and news context. - Access Web Investigate an individual question separately from the aggregate market/model comparison. [Polysimplr]() Research tool**2.0**Editorial Explore Polymarket through AI chat, market filters, watchlists and market-linked headlines in one interface. Also in AI, Research and Resolution Tools. ## Frequently asked questions about Prediction Index ### Is the Chaos Index a single contract I can buy? No order-entry workflow is established here. It is a research aggregate built from constituent prediction-market questions. ### Are escalation and peace exact opposites? The provider separates them into different event groups; a war starting and a ceasefire failing are not interchangeable questions. ### Does a LIVE label mean the machine forecasts were rerun today? Not necessarily. The captured page displayed a September 29 machine run. Read the explicit timestamps and revisions for each surface. ### Does the provider backfill the machine history? Its explanation says the machine line begins on the first experiment run, without backfilling historical model results. In this profile