--- url: "https://polytoolhub.com/tools/cme-fedwatch/" publisher: "Polytoolhub" dateModified: "2026-11-03" --- [← Economic research]() Research tool # CME FedWatch Compare FOMC rate expectations using probabilities implied by CME Fed Funds futures. [**4.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [0 user reviews]() [Visit official site]() www.cmegroup.com **Available on:** Web **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** · The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links. [Economic research]() [Forecasting]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 1 Official FedWatch information page. The embedded probability tool was not independently benchmarked. ## What is CME FedWatch? CME FedWatch presents probabilities for future Federal Reserve rate decisions derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Those futures-derived probabilities provide an independent market reference for researching a prediction-market contract about an FOMC meeting. The values are model-derived from a different instrument, not the Federal Reserve’s own forecast. Match the meeting date and target-rate range before comparing them with a binary market price. ### Who it is for - Macro researchers comparing rate-decision expectations - Users who want a futures-based reference for FOMC markets ## Features and coverage **Available on:** Web - **Rate probabilities** Explore the provider’s futures-implied FOMC probability framework. - **Meeting context** Use meeting dates and target-rate outcomes to frame a comparison. - **Methodology and guide** Read the official calculation explanation and user guide; API access is linked separately. ## Workflows with CME FedWatch ### Compare a meeting outcome Choose the same FOMC meeting and rate range as the prediction-market contract. ### Understand a discrepancy Read the methodology and compare timestamps before interpreting a difference between the two markets. ## Pricing and total cost The public FedWatch information page is accessible. Commercial API or market-data licensing terms are separate and were not verified. **Access:** The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links. ## Getting started 1. Open the FedWatch page and its user guide. 2. Match the meeting and target-rate range to your question. 3. Check methodology and timestamps before comparing probabilities. ## Useful links ### What to check - Probabilities depend on the futures-based methodology. They are not official Fed forecasts or guaranteed outcomes; embedded data delivery was not benchmarked. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews [Write a review]() Editorial rating **4.0**/ 5 0 user reviews Polytoolhub editorial ### Our take on CME FedWatch A useful independent market-based reference with an official methodology. Careful outcome mapping is essential when comparing it with prediction-market contracts. Based on documented features, setup and access terms. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. Write a review ### How was your experience with CME FedWatch? Share what you used, what worked and what could be better. We confirm your email and review the submission before publishing. To submit a review, email [info@polytoolhub.com]() with the tool name, your rating and your experience. 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No. They are CME’s probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures under its methodology. ### Can I compare a rate range with a rate-change contract directly? Only after mapping both to the same starting rate, meeting and outcome definition. ### What does CME FedWatch cost? The public FedWatch information page is accessible. Commercial API or market-data licensing terms are separate and were not verified. ### What access does CME FedWatch require? The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider; the public page supplies methodology and guide links. In this profile